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The Army deployments are part of a broader U.S. military effort to reassure NATO allies rattled by Russia's actions. Here's what it might look like. Top editors give you the stories you want delivered right to your inbox each weekday. ", "The United States and Russia are going for different things," Galeotti said. Patchy control Close watchers of the Russia-Ukraine war say the fluid and rapidly changing. U.S. strategic early warning forces abruptly detect SS-19 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), each loaded with a nuclear-armed Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle, launched from silos near Orenburg, Russia. Here, Popular Mechanics examines two classic nuclear attack scenarios: a counterforce strike and a countervalue strike. The scenario outlined above is an outlier, but one still within the realm of possibility. "No Americans have been under Russian artillery or rocket fire or been on the receiving end of significant Russian electronic warfare, the jamming and collecting, for example, not at tactical levels.". Instead of carriers designed for offensive power projection at sea, the Russians are investing in an expanding fleet of submarines that can supplement their nuclear force and, conventionally, threaten an enemy surface fleet in nearby waters such as the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea or the Mediterranean Sea. If U.S. forces routed their Russian counterparts and neared the Ukrainian-Russian border, Russia might target them with tactical nuclear weapons (typically 20,000 tons of TNT or less) to stop their advance. Concern that Russia might use nuclear weapons to restore its flagging fortunes in Ukraine seems to have declined since summer, as the war has settled into a destructive stalemate. It's a unique battlespace, and the Americans who have provided training to Ukrainian forces are eager to collect intelligence about the Russians' new mode of combat. "The actual fatalities would be significantly increased by deaths occurring from the collapse of medical systems, as well as nuclear fallout and other long-term effects, including a possible global-scale nuclear winter.". The four-minute audiovisual piece called "Plan A", which was developed by researchers associated with Princeton University's Program on Science & Global Security (SGS), has seen renewed interest since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. China today spends more on defense annually than Russia, but still imports platforms and advanced weaponry from Russia. Millions more injured in the attacks and unable to reach a hospital would likely succumb to their injuries. By clicking Sign up, you agree to receive marketing emails from Insider Ukrainian servicemen patrol near the chemical plant in Avdeevka, a town just north of the city of Donetsk, on June 20. "If we put our minds together and really invest in the right technologies, the right concepts, and we develop those with speed and scale, we should be able to deter great-power war," she says. But before you freak out and assume this is the world's fate, the chance of a nuclear global war is fairly unlikely. Down goes the money for more traditional hardware and troop numbers. But the eye-rolling is hitting epic levels this month as Russia has taken over the . Russias invasion of Ukraine will almost certainly not start an all-out nuclear war. The base will help secure Russia's longtime naval support facility at the Syrian port of Tarus, a key to the Russian military's ability to maintain and project power into the Mediterranean. "I think this would play out in a very fast-paced environment that's heavily reliant on the information domain,"says Meia Nouwens, a senior research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) focusing on China's use of data for military advantage. Russia reportedly is expanding its footprint at the Tarus facility. National security advisor Jake Sullivan gave a grim description Sunday of what a Russian invasion of Ukraine might look like and urged Americans to depart the country immediately . These five simmering disputes pose the greatest risk of erupting into "World War III" in 2023. Its aim is to highlight the "potentially catastrophic" consequences of a nuclear war between Russia and NATO. However, Barmin said, "it is doubtful that Russia has the capacity to emerge as a leading power in [the Middle East] in the near future because its presence in the region is limited if you compare it to that of the United States. But modern wars are not toe-to-toe conventional fights; geography, politics and terrain inevitably give one side an advantage. Would a nuclear counterattack achieve anything? That's reflected in the fact that Russia maintains a lone aircraft carrier while the U.S. Navy's 10-carrier fleet operates on a continuing global deployment cycle. Russia's aerospace industry, for example, has benefited greatly from international exports to non-Western nations, which go to Russia to buy effective fighter jets that are cheaper than their Western variants. In February 2022, Russia attacked Ukraine, starting the largest clash in Europe since World War II. "The Russian defense industry is being rebuilt from ruins," said Vadim Kozyulin, a military expert at the Moscow-based PIR Center, a think tank. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko, File). But over time I think we would be able to degrade it. More broadly, Moscow is signaling a long-term interest in extending its umbrella of anti-access area denial capabilities into the Middle East. The United States signalled Friday that a. Vladimir Putin has reminded Europe since invading Ukraine that Russia is still a nuclear superpower. The immediate fatalities and casualties that would occur in each phase of the conflict are determined using data from NUKEMAP, an online tool that was developed by Alex Wellerstein at the Stevens Institute of Technology. ", Russian soldiers stand in line to pay their last respect to Mikhail Kalashnikov, the designer of the iconic AK-47 assault rifle that was the favoured weapon of guerrillas worldwide, during his funeral ceremony in Mytishchi outside Moscow on December 27, 2013. But it has not yet provided any offensive weaponry and ammunition, and it has not threatened military action against Russia. It's unclear who will take her place as the Pentagon's key policy maker for Russia-related issues. 19FortyFive's defense and national security contributing editor, Dr. Robert Farley has taught security and diplomacy courses at the Patterson School since 2005. Washington has placed economic sanctions on Russia, sent U.S. troops to help train Ukrainian forces and has ramped up military exercises across Eastern Europe. About 100 yards across . KYIV "After Ukraine, Chechnya," says the Chechen commander fighting on Kyiv's side. 1st Class Jason Muzzy, an observer-controller from Company A, 1st Battalion, 161st Infantry Regiment, works with an Estonian soldier during a training exercise in Germany. The Kremlin blames the U.S. and NATO for causing the current crisis. Agustn Montaez, How Russia Could Use Chemical Weapons in Ukraine, Ukraine Will Pay $1 Million to Russian Defectors, How Biden Could Revamp Americas Nuclear Arsenal, Democrats Push for No-First-Use Nuclear Pledge, U.S. Airmen Accidentally Leak Top-Secret Nuke Info, Why the F/A-18 Hornet Is Such a Badass Plane, What You Need to Know About the An-225 Mriya, U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Amanda R. Gray, China Denies 'Remarkable' Expansion of Its Nukes, 6 Tips for Installing Your New In-Ground Pool, Your Privacy Choices: Opt Out of Sale/Targeted Ads, If the United States and Russia were to engage in direct air, land, and sea conflict, the risk of. Up goes the budget for digital technology, artificial intelligence and cyber. A review of the military balance in the immediate Baltic theater would seem to give Russia an initial advantage in an aerial campaign against NATO, if Moscow's political objective was to push NATO out of the Baltics. The Ukraine War Has Already Begun - and It's Unlike Any You've Seen Before The hybrid warfare developed and practiced by Russia over the past two decades relies - like in the Ukraine crisis - on propaganda, psychological warfare and cyberattacks as much as on conventional firepower AFP PHOTO/ ALEKSEY CHERNYSHEV (Photo credit should read ALEKSEY CHERNYSHEV/AFP/Getty Images). Read about our approach to external linking. The armed conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh has aptly demonstrated what future warfare will look like, with its swarms of kamikaze drones constantly on their enemy's tail. So far, the administration has pledged only "nonlethal aid" for training and gear such as Humvees, small drones and radar. AFP PHOTO / ANDREY KRONBERG (Photo credit should read ANDREY KRONBERG/AFP/Getty Images). In the current situation, lacking a direct U.S. and Russian confrontation, the likelihood of nuclear war is somewhere near zero. He received his bachelor's from the University of Oregon in 1997, and his Ph.D. from the University of Washington in 2004. Not according to Michele Flournoy, who spent years right at the heart of US defence policy. Ukrainian officials in Kiev have made repeated pleas for more. Meaning what, in practice? The year 2021 has seen a fundamental shift in British defence and security policy. After all, there is little reason to trust Russia at this point. The Biden administration and its allies in Europe have taken extraordinary care with the risks of escalation, but Washington does not hold all of the cards and either Kyiv or Moscow might become willing to accept the risk of a wider conflict, a conflict that could develop into World War III. Other estimates are much higher, but in general there is a high degree of uncertainty about how much of those forces exist only on paper, and how many are truly prepared for combat. (AP Photo/Vadim Ghirda). In February 2022, Russia attacked Ukraine, starting the largest clash in Europe since World War II. "We should be able to achieve our objectives and keep the Indo-Pacific, for example, free and open and prosperous into the future. The Plan A simulation was originally prepared for an exhibition at Princeton's Bernstein Gallery in 2017 and was later made available to the public as a YouTube video in 2019. "We have not fought wars the way they do in kind of an urban, mixed urban and nonurban setting with UAVs, with electronic jamming.". By early spring, the United States and its allies were pursuing policies that would result in the death of Russian soldiers, the destruction of Russian military equipment, and the long-term degradation of the Russian economy. taken extraordinary care with the risks of escalation, domestic vulnerability of the Erdogan regime, Waging War with Gold: National Security and the Finance Domain Across the Ages. Ukraine's anticipated counter-offensive will be like a "big bang," a military expert told The Sun. Sign up for notifications from Insider! Worry about the immediacy of war between Taiwan and China has waned a bit in the past months, in large part because of China's catastrophic covid experience. The strike targets Americas remaining military bases, industry, energy, communications, and transportation facilitiespractically anything that makes 21st-century life worth living. That has sparked concern in the West that Putin's ultimate goal is to break NATO with force, if intimidation fails. These very sophisticated air defense capabilities are not about ISIL they're about something else.". Maintaining peace requires careful statesmanship; managing escalation during war requires extraordinary skill. Russia has a very diverse atomic arsenal, which allows it to launch attacks using land, sea and air delivery platforms: this is the so-called. That could include Iraq, the leadership of which has invited the Russians to assist in the fight against the Islamic State in that country. That's hypersonic missiles - super-charged projectiles that can fly at anywhere between five and 27 times the speed of sound and carry either a conventional or nuclear warhead. The US conducted a military exercise last week which simulated a "limited" nuclear exchange with Russia, a senior Pentagon official has confirmed. In the final stage of the conflict, both Russia and NATO target the 30 most populated cities and economic centers of the other sideusing 5-10 nuclear warheads on each depending on population sizein an attempt to inhibit the potential for recovery. (Homs Media Centre via AP). "In addition to the immediate death and suffering and economic and societal collapse, in the years following the war, the phenomenon of nuclear winter would exacerbate the catastrophe," he said, pointing to one study which found that more than five billion people could eventually die from a nuclear conflict between the United States and Russia. Russia has repeatedly sent military aircraft into Baltic airspace, patrolled submarines in the Baltic Sea and allegedly mounted cyber-attacks. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has set off a new wave of concern about cyber attacks. As Russia wages war in Ukraine, experts have described what would happen in a nuclear strike, which is unlikely. "It's much more about the U.S. than it is about Syria and Assad," Galeotti said. SERGEY BOBOK/AFP via Getty Images. Places like New York City, the San Francisco Bay Area, and entire regions of the U.S. would be spared. Russia on June 20 slammed the EU's extension of sanctions over its annexation of Crimea as "blackmail" and vowed it would not be pressured into returning the peninsula to Ukraine. Kyles articles have appeared at The Daily Beast, U.S. Have your say in our news democracy. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has, if nothing else, demonstrated that major wars can still happen despite the best efforts of the international community. It really doesnt make much difference, because there would be hardly anyone left in the United States in a position to notice. Any fight between Turkey and Greece would immediately involve NATO, and would almost certainly result in some degree of opportunistic intervention by Russia. Another option for Russia, of course, is to shift to a conventional fight. There'd be attempts to "blind" the other by knocking out communications, including satellites, or even cutting the vital undersea cables that carry data. Russia's Victory Day parade is an annual extravagance in Red Square. NATO said earlier this week it had stepped back from a floated idea to reinforce the alliance's military presence in countries bordering Russia, preferring for now to suspend cooperation with Moscow and give more time to talks. Ukrainian troops face threats from insurgents and conventionally trained forces. If China attacks Russia, it can be assured it will suffer a devastating counter strike. Scenario 1: decapitation. Kyle Mizokami is a writer on defense and security issues and has been at Popular Mechanics since 2015. While it is not clear if Russian President Vladimir Putin would ever go so far as to use nuclear weapons, the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine has led to a spike in discussions about the potential outbreak of nuclear war. While this might result in a conventional victory, things could rapidly take a sinister turn. What War With Russia Would Look Like https://ad.style/ Guest Post by Scott Ritter Wendy Sherman thinks her aim in talks with Russian officials starting Monday is to lecture them on the cost of hubris. In late September, all sides agreed to withdraw tanks and heavy artillery from Ukraine's eastern front. Russia launches the remainder of its nukes, this time with an eye toward destruction of anything that could contribute to the war effort. "The simulation was also supported by data sets of the nuclear weapons currently deployed, weapon yields, and possible targets for particular weapons, as well as the order of battle estimating which weapons go to which targets in which order in which phase of the war to show the evolution of the nuclear conflict. An expansion of the war to NATO remains unlikely but possible; the Russian use of nuclear weapons remains unthinkable but not at all impossible. Russia still insists it has no plans to invade Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin has indicated that he understands the peril of nuclear weapons. With hundreds of new aircraft, tanks and missiles rolling off assembly lines and Russian jets buzzing European skies under NATOs wary eye, it doesnt look like Russias economic woes have had any impact on the Kremlins ambitious military modernization program. Join the news democracyWhere your votes decide the Top 100, The world has been reminded of a global war threat after Vladimir Putin claimed he isn't 'bluffing' and accused the West of engaging in 'nuclear blackmail. First off, "future warfare" is already here. Yet right now, on the cusp of 2022, the Russian forces massing on Ukraine's border, while certainly inclusive of offensive cyber and electronic warfare capabilities, are mainly composed of conventional hardware, such as tanks, armoured vehicles and troops - the same sort of hardware that would be deployed if Moscow decided to roll back into the Baltic states, for example. Some see NATO's newest members, like Estonia, as particularly vulnerable to Russia aggression. But the gap has narrowed in recent years. At the end of the day, a war fought with nuclear weapons is not one that can be won. At this point, the United States could surrender and face an uncertain future, or it could fight back. The war in Ukraine has caused concerns about nuclear war. In our scenario, well look at a surprise nuclear first strike that leads to all-out war. Dr. Farley is also a founder and senior editor of Lawyers, Guns and Money. According to Glaser, a global thermonuclear war on this scale could certainly be considered a "worst-case scenario", although the title of the video hints at the fact that the sequence of events shown is simply part of the standard playbook. Read about our approach to external linking. Hearst Magazine Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The Russian President made it clear that the western model of democracy and its way of dealing with conflicts in the region is not working," said Yury Barmin, a Moscow-based Russian expert on Mideast politics and Russian foreign policy. Key Points. ', In a rare address to his nation on September 21st, Putin announced a "partial mobilisation" of around 300,000 troops to the war in Ukraine. Both the United States and Russia believe that a nuclear war is not winnable and should never be fought. Putins Russia, seeing Ukraine as alone and vulnerable, decided to attack. .css-v1xtj3{display:block;font-family:FreightSansW01,Helvetica,Arial,Sans-serif;font-weight:100;margin-bottom:0;margin-top:0;-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}@media (any-hover: hover){.css-v1xtj3:hover{color:link-hover;}}@media(max-width: 48rem){.css-v1xtj3{font-size:1.1387rem;line-height:1.2;margin-bottom:1rem;margin-top:0.625rem;}}@media(min-width: 40.625rem){.css-v1xtj3{line-height:1.2;}}@media(min-width: 48rem){.css-v1xtj3{font-size:1.18581rem;line-height:1.2;margin-bottom:0.5rem;margin-top:0rem;}}@media(min-width: 64rem){.css-v1xtj3{font-size:1.23488rem;line-height:1.2;margin-top:0.9375rem;}}6 Tips for Installing Your New In-Ground Pool, The Future of Mobile Military Power May Be Nuclear, We Built a Cool Mid-Century Influenced Desk, How Lasers Will Soon Power U.S. Military Bases, South Korea Is Building an American Arsenal Ship, Theres an Anti-Universe Going Backward in Time, Why France Is Still a Formidable Nuclear Power, 3 Simple Ways to Remove Wax From a Candle Jar, What We Know About the Navys New Seabed Spy Sub. While it seems unlikely that a NATO ally would openly attack another NATO ally, past conflicts have brought the two countries up to the brink of war (and sometimes slightly beyond) notwithstanding their alliance commitments. Saturday 29 April 2023 01:15, UK. "I would not want to speculate how long it would take for humanity to recover," Glaser said. In the final stage of the conflict, both Russia and NATO target the 30 most populated cities and economic centers of the other sideusing 5-10 nuclear warheads on each depending on population. "It has been interesting to hear what they have learned," Army Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, commander of the U.S. Army in Europe, told Defense News, a sister publication of Military Times. Kiev says it's desperate for more weaponry, but so far Washington has shown willingness to provide only nonlethal equipment. Moments later, Russia launches its entire force of 304 land-based ICBMs carrying a total of approximately 1,183 thermonuclear warheads. aggressively undermining America's 25-year claim to being the only truly global superpower. Offensive cyber attacks, whether disruptive or predatory, have become a regular daily occurrence, something known as "sub-threshold warfare". Bombers are particularly useful in this situation, as they could be used to actively hunt down what remained of Russias ICBMs, particularly those like the SS-27 mounted on 16-wheeled missile transport trucks. CNBC takes a look at the possible outcomes for Ukraine and what might happen in each of them: 1. Access your favorite topics in a personalized feed while you're on the go. Russia currently occupies parts of Ukraine, but the U.S. still considers Moscow's March 2014 invasion illegal and its control there illegitimate. Unlike conventional war, a nuclear war is not something that happens out of the blue. Assured destruction is a powerful disincentive to using even just one nuclear weapon, let alone using hundreds in an apocalyptic attack. Fighting back would mean launching what remained of its ICBMs and any bombers that survived, using them to hunt down remaining Russian nuclear weapons. The scenario shown in the piece is a plausible one based on the available evidence. The XII International Aviation and Space Show in Zhukovsky opened Tuesday for specialists and press, with members of the public invited to visit it from Friday, Aug. 28. NATO then retaliates with a single, tactical, nuclear air strike. "In all likelihood, yes," he says. For the small cadre of U.S. military professionals who've been working alongside Ukrainian government forces, the fight against Russian-backed rebels is a major change from their recent experience in Iraq and Afghanistan. Yet the tension between the U.S. and Russia over the war is a reminder that as long as both sides have nuclear weapons, the possibility of a nuclear war happening is not zero. The UK has taken the decision to cut its conventional forces in favour of investing in new technology. What would that look like? Ukraine War / War With Russia: It's almost like NO ONE thought it through first before they launched this proxy war in Ukraine? The willingness of the Biden administration to take risky rhetorical positions on the defense of Taiwan indicates that Washington has real concern over the prospects of a Chinese attack. Russian has lined thousands of troops and large tank and artillery units along its Ukrainian border. By FP Contributors. "I think we're going to have a very dangerous period within the next five to 10 years when a lot of the downsizing is going to happen. Most importantly, the strike would preserve Washingtons ability to communicate with its nuclear forces. There's nothing ordinary about Cold Response 2020. ", You can listen Frank Gardner's full report on BBC Radio 4's Today programme, guest-edited by General Sir Nick Carter, the former Chief of Defence Staff, Russia launches pre-dawn missile attack on Ukraine, Chaos at port as thousands rush to leave Sudan, Suspected IS chief killed in Syria, Turkey says. Attempting a side-by-side comparisons of the U.S. and Russian militaries is a bit like comparing apples to oranges, many experts say; the Russians have distinctly different strategic goals, and their military structure reflects that. Russia-Ukraine war - latest news updates; Pjotr Sauer. At that point, either side could opt to massively escalate, reasoning that the first side to use larger, more powerful strategic nuclear weapons could gain a survival advantage over the other, launching a first strike so devastating it destroys most of the enemys strategic arsenal. Here, the US has the qualitative edge over its potential adversaries and Michele Flournoy believes it can offset areas where the West is outnumbered by the vast size of China's People's Liberation Army. Many of the aspects of a major conflict between the West and say, Russia or China, have already been developed, rehearsed and deployed. At the same time, a lot of these emerging technological capabilities will not be mature enough to really have an operational impact," he says. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the coastal infrastructure that stretched from Kalingrad to Leningrad was lost to the newly independent Baltic states. As . It's not a desire to return to the Cold War.". Why you can trust Sky News. Five U.S. Army brigadesbacked up by fighters, bombers, and cruise missilesdrive from Poland to Kyiv, then on to Donetsk. Ukrainian soldiers train outside Kyiv on Feb. 21. Toe to toe, a conventional war between the U.S. and Russia would be no contest. The audio-visual scenario is called "Plan A" and it shows how devastating a nuclear war would be. And Russian officials have voiced support for Russian-speaking minorities, raising the specter of future agitation. He added: "If there is a threat to the territorial integrity of our country, and for protecting our people, we will certainly use all the means available to us - and I'm not bluffing.". Recent tests of US systems, by contrast, have not gone well. No matter what, it would be a nightmare for Europe's leaders. Hitler and Stalin carved up Poland in 1939, and after the war the Soviet Union annexed most of the Polish territory it grabbed in 1939, with . She believes the solution is two things - close consultation and collaboration with allies and investment in the right places. Russia has one of the biggest nuclear arsenals in the world, and is estimated to have thousands of nuclear warheads in its stockpile, assigned for both long-range strategic launchers and shorter-range tactical nuclear forces. Before covering the military, he worked as a reporter for the Houston Chronicle in Texas, the Albany Times Union in New York and The Associated Press in Milwaukee. Russia itself would certainly suffer deaths in the tens of millions, but in this scenario, a death count seems like a futile means of keeping score. In reality, civilians would know in advance if a nuclear weapon would be potentially detonated, giving some enough time to seek shelter. "We see some very sophisticated air defenses going into those airfields, we see some very sophisticated air-to-air aircraft going into these airfields," Gen. Phillip Breedlove, chief of the U.S. European Command and also the Supreme Allied Commander of NATO, said Sept. 28. "So if you have one manned platform that can control 100 unmanned platforms, then you start to buy back that quantitative balance.". U.S. First, a sustained war of conquest is unlikely. Any attempt by the U.S. and its allies to infiltrate Russian air space "would not necessarily be easy," Schwartz said. But while Russia's conventional forces are less impressive than its nuclear forces, there are specific conventional areas where the Russians excel among them aircraft, air defenses, submarines,. Over the weekend, Russian . Ukrainian soldiers man an anti-aircraft weapon at a checkpoint outside the town of Amvrosiivka, eastern Ukraine, close to the Russian border, Thursday, June 5, 2014. The first is gone and the second is fraying, to the extent that Pyongyang may feel like it has a moment and Seoul may struggle to find the patience to tolerate the antics of its neighbor. China's Dong Feng 17, first revealed in 2019, carries a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) that can manoeuvre through the atmosphere with an almost unpredictable trajectory, making it hard to intercept.